The IronDog Chronicles

Damn random number generators…I get pick number six.

I’m back on with a intense fantasy football league for the third year. Last year, the McCauley Street Mongols out of Chapel Hill won the league and gained a paltry sum that was able to pay a blogga’s tuition bill for last year.

With last year’s cigar ashes still in tray, and realizing that I will probably never be able to out-perform a complete last year’s draft-night performance of following first-round bust Larry Johnson with an absolute royal flush of picks from the second round through the sixth round that consisting of; Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt, Adrian Peterson, Andre Johnson, and Ben Roethlisberger, the Mongol organization shouldn’t be wheeling with the random generator bestowing the sixth pick upon the organization.

If you’re in the position with the sixth or seventh pick in a 12-Man league, this blogga feels your pain. The pick is a dud because you’re almost guaranteed in order to grab a positional best and at the least you’re a mid-tier team with your positioning.

What does that mean? Well, you better own Rounds 3-7 with some heavy in-depth research in order to build depth, and if you’re playing defensive players, you better make a heavy pull on your ADP superstars.

Without further adieu, here’s what this blogga is looking at doing with the sixth pick.

(Note: For league details, this league is a keeper league that allows for you to re-draft your “keeper” selections in the seventh and eighth rounds if you so choose. For the Mongols, Ben Roethlisberger is the 7th and at the current moment…Jeremy Shockey will be used for the 8th. Out of current Yahoo! Big Board, Top 25 rankings, Braylon Edwards is the only protected player.)

Who do you take?

Here are the projected top six picks that could probably go ahead of the top 6.

1.) LaDainlian Tomilson - Gone, no issue.

2.) Adrian Peterson - Gone (By the way, “Caution” watch out for that torn PCL from last year…Seriously. He had the blown-out shoulder the year before at Oklahoma and the PCL at the end of the year…Be careful and focus on drafting a strong #2 back.)

3.) Stephen Jackson - His holdout after an injury plagued year with a torn groin is eerily reminding me of last year’s version of Larry Johnson.

4.) Tom Brady - Does Tom Brady peek into the Top 5s of most Fantasy Drafts. If so, I have one of the following two players falling into the sixth slot. With that said, I have Roethlisberger, and the Steelers are strong pass-happy team now in the Mike Tomlin era. Just ask “Fast” Willie Parker…By the way, check out this strong fantasy scouting report on “Fast” Willie here by ESPN’s Tristan Cockcroft.

I also have a bylaw to never take a QB in the first round. In the long-term, they’re not only highly fragile, but also with a premier elite QB who would be first round selectable, you have to wonder how many blowouts and late-season games that he’ll be on the sideline. Also, can a QB put back-to-back fantasy seasons like Brady had last year.

With this post, I’m assuming that someone doesn’t jump on Brady this early…The potential of the first five backs are too strong to pass. However, I have a feeling that someone is going to make a pull, and either Westbrook or Addai will fall. My hope is that Westbrook is there, which leads me to my thoughts on Westbrook.

4.) Brian Westbrook - Great gamer, will he slip after a contract year? Probably not…Yet, what I am concerned with his the injury plagued years that he had before last year’s phenomenal year. He also sat out the first week or so with an “illness.” I don’t know…He’s an incredible back who picks up a lot of points on receiving yards and catches. This may be the guy who can fall for a great pick.

5.) Joseph Addai - Not a bad choice. I wanted the guy last season, but I thought he was too much of a reach at #2. I’m not thrilled with his output because he gets so banged-up. Yet, this is his third year, which usually is a major break-out year. With Marvin Harrison dwindling and Anthony Gonzalez developing, you have to think that Addai is going to get a lot of calls. Not a bad call at t’all for a slip.

Larry Johnson - I absolutely dreaded picking this guy last year. He skipped all of his preseason with a holdout, which was absolutely ridiculous, and I knew that the absence of Willie Roaf was more than just a scratch on his offensive line. I had the second spot, and I drafted him…8 Games, 3 100 yard games, and his Week 5 performance of 9 Rushes for 12 Yards said it all…Thud.

Supposedly, he has worked out incredibly hard this summer by cutting out all sweets. Yet, I’m still wary…He worked out incredibly hard last summer during his holdout.

The Chiefs don’t have a QB. Their line is suspect, and I have to wonder how much of LJ’s production was due to Dick Vermiel’s tutelage and the experience that was on that offensive line. Yes, he did rebound with a couple of 100 yard games before a “broken” ankle sidelined each and every game, (he was listed as “doubtful”, and very private with team doctors, which was all the more frustrating.) However, I’ve been burned…

I hope that my pick doesn’t come down to this one again…

Marshawn Lynch - Lynch is an interesting pick. He had a solid rookie year, and he’ll get a ton of touches with the Bills offense. However, is he worth a sixth pick?

The fact is that Lynch will probably finish within the top five backs in the league. He had 3 100 yard games and 7 TDs last season, can he stretch that into 300 more yards and five or six more TDs? If there is a sure-fire pick, who will break a 1,000 yards and score at least 10 TDs, the guy is Lynch, but can you get more with an upside pick? The answer to that one is - how much do you want to put on the table?

#6 may be a reach for Lynch, but this may be the pick…You’ll get a player on the rise.

Frank Gore - Do you really want to bank on a guy who bitched at the inept Niner offense last year, and was banged up enough to tally a total of 2 100 yard games and 5 TDs last season. In another league, I held the last choice of the first round, and I used Gore as my first round pick….I was deep fried.

I hear ‘ya…He has Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator this year in Candlestick/3COM/Monster Park. Yet, with J.T. O’Sullivan running the show and the experience of a young and often inept offensive line still upon us. I have a ‘Don’t Touch’ policy upon Gore. He’s a great talent, and after the preseason game against the Bears when he had 8 rushes for 51 yards, he said he hasn’t felt this good about the offense “in a long time.” However, on another team that had at least an offense to build upon, your choice would be worthy. The Niners are just too inept for him to carry a full load for a first-round pick, which is why you may want to choose…

Randy Moss - Yes, I would look at taking the best WR in the game at this spot. Why not roll the dice?

You get the best WR in the game.  You have one of the top three highest scoring fantasy players in the game last year, who is saying that he is going to have a stronger year due to the fact that he now has an extra year working within an offensive scheme.

And think about this one…

You’ll have a number one position player, and with the number 18 pick, you can pick-up a running back in the form of a Thomas Jones, Jamal Lewis, or a Brandon Jacobs with a not a lot of downside when compared with the early projected second-rounders of Laurence Maroney, Maurice Jones-Drew, or Willis McGahee. 

If you make this choice, you’re not bad off.  Especially, when you consider the facts that support an emerging thought that running backs are the most replaceable parts of any offense.  Think about it…Where were Ryan Grant, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Adrian Peterson, last season at this point?  Grant was unheard of, Jones-Drew was the poster boy for Fantasy sites, APete was the back-up behind Chester Taylor.

As we can see a lot of the backs are risky choices.  Along with the number 18 pick on your swing pick, you get a top six Running back…not an elite.  And you get a number 3 receiver in a Braylon Edwards, Andre Johnson, or Larry Fitzgerald. 

With the #18 position, you’re neither getting a Moss, Owens, nor Reggie Wayne.  So, if you have the #6, you’re guaranteeing that you’ll have at the least a top three WR.  That is not a bad pick there, and you’ve also locked in an elite consistent scorer at a position that is not seeped with deep rooted talent.  So, this is not a bad choice.

Now, who are some dark choices here?

Marion Barber - With the backfield his own, is he worth the six?

Ryan Grant - With Favre, he’s strong.  With Rodgers, you have an unproven entity that can not only be pressured, but also if he’s off to a rocky start, defenses will be able to collapse with ease…Be wary.  Most definitely, you should jump on him  in the second round.

Clinton Portis - You have to be kidding me.  You do your own research on that one.

So, you want to know who this blogga is going to take?

As of right now, I’m leaning toward Lynch or Moss.  Someone could plead their case for Barber, but I have a feeling that he could be last year’s Brandon Jacobs with the way that he bangs and takes runners head-on.  Surprisingly, LJ could push back into contention with a strong pre-season outing, but I think Lynch and Moss have the most upside at this point.  Also, as mentioned beforehand, I’m still very tainted with LJ.  I need to put a “Don’t Touch” sign on my desk.

In the meantime, deep breathe and ease the white knuckling with your number six pick.  Just remember that your draft is really made between the third and eighth rounds.

Break out the cigar, champ…You’re a beast.

Puff, Puff,

BD