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It's Official...On to the Next Move.

Bret Dougherty is back, and he’s glad that UNC Basketball can move on after J.R. Smith officially signed with an agent Thursday. With the likelihood now lower that his “Bogans Effect” theory will come into play, and with some other tip-ins on UNC Basketball, Bret is ready for the next move.

May 21, 2004

Well, well, well…it’s over. It’ s finally over… With J.R. Smith having officially signed with long-time agent Arn Tellem, Carolina fans can now finally stop looking into the rear-view mirror or Smith’s reflection in UNC’s short-term plans. Believe me, Carolina fans…You should be glad this is over. This waiting period was starting to smell like Jimmy “Five-Day Old” Salmon, and Carolina Basketball should be just fine.
Yes, it is sad that the 6’6” shooting guard won’t be rocking a Carolina uniform next season. Smith set many Carolina fans’ mouths to watering last year at the Gibbons Tournament of Champions at the Smith Center.

If memories can be jostled back to last year, they should also replay the pinch Coach Williams was in at the time. With James “One ON One” Curry signed and only two “supposed” spots left, there looked to be a three-man shell game going on between recruits Brian Johnson, who would later sign with Louisville, Marvin Williams, and Smith. With the 5/8 rule binding Carolina to only two additional signees, the suspicion around the Smith Center was that one of these players would be left out. Of the three players, it was then Smith and Johnson who needed to put on “the sell” to Carolina.

After Smith’s team was soundly beaten in the at the TOC semi-finals, he went to the center of the court and lofted shots while peering up at the rafters after each shot. The Atlanta Celtics team -- which included Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, and Randolph Morris – was playing on one court, and the 15-and-under final raced on the other court, but many eyes wandered to analyze the Carolina prospect’s shot as J.R. missed then made one deep jumper after another.

A cynic could say that Smith was “drama queening” in front of the fans to display his desire to come to Carolina. Yet another cynic could say that this is the type of session that put the “slick” in Smith’s jumper, displayed at the Vaccarro Roundball Classic, the McDonald’s All-American Game, and the Nike Hoop Summit. These images soon had Carolina fans dreaming about Smith providing an extra piece to a guard rotation next season that will include Rashad McCants, Raymond Felton, and Jackie Manuel.

Those dreams have now dissipated into a miasma. But before you go searching message boards to find out which player UNC will land to take up the Smith’s spot, realize that the situation is not so bad for a few reasons. Regardless, of Smith’s choice, there would have been a glut of guards next year at Carolina, and Smith probably would have found himself playing an off-the-bench role for a team that will have a lot of veteran leadership at the guard positions. With that in mind, there would have only been so many shots available for the “ESPN/Chad Ford” All-American, and those shots can now be more evenly distributed.

Also, because Smith has formally forfeited his college eligibility by signing with Tellem, there is no longer the chance of a “Bogans Effect” setting in with next year’s Carolina team. “The Bogans Effect” is aptly named for former UK guard Keith Bogans. Returning to Kentucky after dismal performances in individual workouts and at the Chicago Pre-Draft Camp in 2001, Bogans bewildered the UK program with huge drops in his scoring production (17.0 PPG to 11.6 PPG), and his shooting percentage ( from 47% down to 39%) the next season.

Insiders at Kentucky were so puzzled with his play that Tubby Smith placed blame squarely on The Draft for the changes in Bogans’ demeanor throughout his junior year. Smith explained to ‘The Sporting News’ in February of 2002, “There’s no comparison. He’s off in all phases of his game…And I can’t put my finger on it, except there’s a lot more pressure on him. He put his name in the NBA Draft, and then withdrew it. He’s a marked man.”

While looking at Smith’s case, the “Bogans Effect” probably would have been in serious play had J.R. Smith wound up back at Carolina this year. If Smith had abandoned NBA plans and enrolled at UNC, expectations would have been white hot, and it would take a special player to live up to the potential that many have heaped upon Smith’s game. A bad first year would have knocked him down from a draft position that he could have never attained again.

However, the pressure for him to perform at the next level is going to be just as tight, and it won’t allow him to hide in a corner. In the past, words such as “potential”, “upside” and “investment” have excused predominately pitiful choices of high-schoolers as first round picks at NBA post-Draft Day press conferences around the league. Those words’ shelf-life is shortening as the expectations on first round picks grow greater each year amongst fans, front offices, and ownership who are expecting to see the quick development of the next Amare Stoudamire, Kevin Garnett, or Kobe Bryant.

When you think about the typical first-round pick straight from high school, you don’t have to look far to see “now” type expectations on the NBA’s youth. After three seasons, Tyson Chandler is considered a wash-out in Chicago. The question, who the hell is Kwame Brown? is still prevalent in D.C. DeShawn Stevenson was shipped out of Utah after four mediocre seasons, and Eddy Curry is working out like crazy at ‘Hoops the Gym’ in Chicago to save a very iffy chance for his extension with the Bulls.

It doesn’t look good for the two high schoolers that were drafted at #23 and #26 in last year’s draft either. With the Timberwolves #23 pick, Ndubi Ebi played in only seventeen games with thirty-two minutes of action this past year for a grand total of 13 points and 6 Fouls. Travis Outlaw lit it up in Portland in his eighteen minutes in 8 games of action for a fizzled total of 8 points.

To lump Smith straight into this category isn’t fair. However, the numbers aren’t playing in his favor. Six other high-school lottery picks averaged fewer than a dozen points this past year.

Carolina fans shouldn’t worry too much about their beloved program. 6’6” shooting guards are a dime a dozen in the recruiting wars, and Coach Williams will have “first dibbs” for his next move, with the University in Chapel Hill as the attraction.

So wish Smith the best of luck, but as one agent that I talked with during the past week stated. “It’s one thing to hit jumpers in a playground game like an All-Star game. It’s a whole different ball-game with Artest, Christie, and Bowen diggin’ up your @$$ every night….”

Tip-Ins – Go play Miles Davis’s ‘Shhh, Be Peaceful’ on this one…The transfer process for KU Transfer center, David Padgett, will be starting up soon…And Carolina may be a stop on a tour that could be reminiscent of the Luke Recker transfer tour that came through Chapel Hill in ’99…For you fans fretting about how strained Coach Williams and his relationship with KU would be for landing Padgett, don’t fret….Bill Self is breakin’ backboards with his recruiting for this year’s class and next year’s. With this year’s class, he swiped 6’11” C.J. Giles away from Miami’s cradle to go along with PG Russell Robinson, J.R. Smith’s St. Benedict’s H.S. teammate SF Alex Galindo, and 6’11” C Sasha Kaun. For next season, Self has landed Seattle junior SF Micah Downs and he may bring in top junior point guard Mario Chalmers from Alaska by the start of the weekend. So, if you have a soft heart for KU, don’t feel bad for those in ‘Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk’ land…they’re killing it. On the other hand, be very quiet and just sit back and watch for Padgett….shhh…

On the Sidelines - Attention you Woollen Gym Legends…the University ripped up the original Woollen Gym floor on May 10 for a much-needed rennovation. By August 15, the floor will be replaced with a light maple wood, which is incredible…No more slippin’ and slidin’…And don’t worry, I’m working on something for you….Stay tuned….Speaking of slippin’ and slidin’… what the hell is up with Nas?…He cancels his show on the last day of class at the Smith Center because of an illness. Yet, he’s on ‘who’s in the crowd’ list at the Knick playoff game the same night he cancels. His slithering excuse cost the Carolina Union Activities Board an un-recoupable $10K in promotional costs…Do yourself a favor, either you or have your kids boycott his wack-@$$ for a couple of years...The remixes on that 10th Anniversary “Illmatic” LP are soft anyway....

Next,

BD

Bret Dougherty is a UNC-Chapel Hill alum and current graduate student at UNC-Chapel Hill. Bret will be residing in New York City until August, and he will be away from his role as host of WXYC FM 89.3 SportsRap this summer. Check out his views and his Lower Manhattan sights at his blog “The IronDog Chronicles”, which can be reached from his website www.unc.edu/~bretd. Feel free to contact him at bret.dougherty@onebox.com.

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