"Tyler Naivety'

by Bret Dougherty, February 18 , 2006

Does anyone remember the scene in "The Color of Money" when 'Vince' runs shop on 'Moselle'?

Do you remember the interaction between 'Fast Eddie' Felson and 'Moselle's' stakehorse, 'Earl'? After the main character, 'Vince' (Tom Cruise) puts on a show that stops all of Chalkie's, 'Earl' coolly strolls up to 'Fast Eddie' (Paul Newman), gives a shake of the head while putting on his leather overcoat. Knowing the cover is blown on 'Vince's' game for the big-time action at Chalkie's, 'Earl' simply mutters to 'Fast Eddie'....."That boy is hot."

Well, I'm shaking my head like 'Earl' on this one. Following Tyler Hansbrough's 40-point and 10 rebound barrage against Georgia Tech on Wednesday night, the only description of his play this season that I can mutter is a smoky "That boy is hot..."

Thankfully, Tyler Hansbrough with his performance Wednesday neither showed his @$$ like Vince at Chalkie's, nor screamed 'Please look at me!' by pushing up stolen Delta/'Dynasty' symbols like the "Born To Be Hated and Dying to Be Loved..." characters of this world.

However, I am saying that, following Tyler's performance against Georgia Tech, I would be surprised if what you're seeing from No. 50 in a Tar Heel uniform this season is not a train passing through the night. It's just the way it is...

Why do I say this?...Because last year's mass exodus really exploded my naivety at this whole game.

I'll never bet against the lure of 1.6M and 1.7M for a #13 slot in a NBA Draft again. When listening to any student athlete, much less any college basketball player, I'll never believe the words "I'll be back..." until two weeks AFTER the Chicago pre-draft camp. And I'll never, ever buy the "It's not about the money, it's about the financial burdens" plea again.

C'mon, nowadays, it has turned into a grab it while you can get it game...plain and simple. So, fans would be better served to save their prayers over whether Tyler Hansbrough is going to leave after this season for a Sweet 16 berth this season.

Now, I know this may sound cold...But in today's basketball world, if you want loyalty and love for the college game...the best suggestion would be to turn your stuffed ram into a cocker spaniel.

Here are a couple of thoughts on the subject.

First, it's time to forget the so-called "Carolina Policy" which says that only if a player will be picked in the top five of the NBA Draft, he should go. For me, that response always was like suggesting that one apply calamine lotion on a tourist from Kenosha who slept off a hangover from the night before in the February Florida sun for eight hours. Soothing...but useless.

If a player projects to be taken in the first round these days, he's pretty much gone. That statement also applied in days when drafts were actually deep and when athletes could improve their status without guaranteed contracts and rookie salary caps.

Tyler Hansbrough wasn't a first-rounder before this season began. After the past month, he is now a top-15 player. Message for the few Tar Heel fans who still believe they can base whether or not a player is making a correct choice on the "Carolina Top 5 Policy": this thought has a nice floral smell to it... but, it's as old-school as waiting in line at Woollen Gym to register for classes.

Second, don't buy the point that because a player comes from money, he'll stay. I don't care if someone's father is a neurosurgeon for interplanetary beings from Pluto. Tyler Hansbrough is an incredibly talented young man, phenomenal dude, great character, and holds a tremedous work ethic, but it is highly likely his family is not going to offer to support his collegiate spending on Franklin Street and at Southpoint Mall in lieu of $11M over 3 years.

It's true that each and every case is unique, but when players such as Mike Dunleavy and Sean May are leaving school for the loot, that be a solid signal for ACC fans to understand that it's about the money now, and not the experience.

Both May and Dunleavy not only had big-pocketed family incomes behind them, but also NBA pedigree, NBA rationale, and higher education in their families. In the case of the Dunleavy family, it happened despite Dad's $12M, 4-year contract to coach the Los Angeles Clippers, plus major earnings from time under Paul Allen in Portland and under Herb Kohl in Milwaukee. It still was about the loot, not the education.

If players like May and Dunleavy are leaving education behind, do you really think anyone should bank upon loyalty and the old college experience anymore in the college basketball world today? If there's a whiff of over 1M or in the Top 25...It's likely to be sayonara, and see you next summer.

And that's not just a Carolina thing either...(Just call Luol Deng, Jarret Jack, Jason Richardson, Chris Kamen, etc. for more info)

Yet, before your cynicism joins forces with mine, ask yourself, how can you blame the young freshmen who are now leaving after one year?

For a case in point, look at Marvin Williams.

It didn't take long for the NBA pundits to realize that the way he runs like a Fat Albert character wasn't just due to his youth. Already, the rap is that he is slow...more than a touch too slow for a small forward. (What's shocking is that it took them a half of an NBA season to decipher that.) Combine that with the fact it could take him a looonnggg time to develop what everyone in Chapel Hill knew he didn't have...a consistent jump shot... and the upshot for Williams is that leaving last season was a very wise choice.

In Atlanta, by working with assistant coach Greg Ballard, it is possible that Marvin could develop a jumper and some solid moves over the next season or two. That's hopeful...but what is more likely, is that Atlanta will reward him just for being a good guy, like a mediocre skilled Dunleavy. Like Dunleavy, there is a strong chance that Marvin Williams will be stealing $7M/year by the end of his third season because he is a 'good team guy'.

Not bad for a player who should have been heading into his senior year and who was paid for the three years to develop under the umbrella of the Atlanta Hawks Youth Hostel.

So that is why when you ask the question of whether or not a player should leave to develop his talent better, you can neither knock Marvin Williams for making the jump nor judge his moral servitude. Whatever a player's economic background and draft slot is, he can work on his game a lot more in the NBA than he could in college...and yes, that includes Chapel Hill.

Even if Marvin Williams currently despises his professional Atlanta life, it's a life that consists of working out, lifting, playing vids, going through shoot-arounds, and playing a game every other night... all year long! Oh yeah...he may have to occasionally put a Santa hat on for a children's home in the winter.

The wild thing is that he gets paid very well for actually living a lifestyle like this...and if he works hard enough, Marvin Williams like Dunleavy, could get a major extension in two years time through the form of a contract worth $44M for 4 years.

Also, if Williams really wants to develop his writing skills and create a college experience for himself by taking English 11 in Greenlaw, he'll be able to do it during any summer session over the next decade, while the Atlanta Hawks Youth Project continues its development.

Seriously, with current NCAA practice limitations, do you think an elite level 19-year old is going to get that same amount of individual instruction and attention with the attending monetary guarantees during the off-season in the Hill?

Now, an even more relevant example to compare with Hansbrough may be the Sean May case that unfolded in Chapel Hill last season.

Given May's recent injury status, does his decision to leave look bad now? The crazy thing is that Bob "Irkel" Johnson is paying him 5.5M over the next 3 years... Guaranteed... wondering when or if he'll play again

Yes, Tyler Hansbrough needs to gain explosiveness to succeed in the NBA right now. His up and under post game is not going to cut it in the league. Yes, he needs a left hand. Yes, he is a little short for his position, and yes, he needs to develop a wing game.

Without lower body strength and a consistent arsenal of go-to moves, Tyler Hansborough will struggle with the Gasols and Stoudamires -- much less with the Rasheed type models of the NBA...And that's even with a Rasheed Wallace barely busting his @$$ to get up and down the court. It also doesn't require your last name to be affiliated with the Colangelo family to figure all this out now with his current game.

However, the college ranks are depleted this season. ( Note: That could be one explanation for why North Carolina is doing well and schools like Duke and Florida are having incredible seasons with weak teams compared to past seasons...but that's a whole other article. )

To continue, a major talent gap is shaping up in this year's NBA Draft. Power forward prospects will be endangered species. So, why shouldn't Tyler Hansbrough go?

Hansbrough would be a very natural pick in the late lottery this year... . A team has to draft someone at that slot. Without high-school potential to select, a burning GM will at least try to save his @## by selecting a brand name and a good All-American story that can be sold to the press.

Think about it...Mark Madsen is making $2M for simply busting his @$$ up and down the floor for less than 15 minutes per game and for being a good guy in the locker room. Hansbrough is not only a better player than Mark Madsen, but he also goes at it just as hard without the awkward geek-ness that Madsen has. Plus, Hansbrough is a great kid. Tyler Hansbrough with his heart of a lion will have a role in the NBA.

Also, when you have hovering vultures like Bob "Irkel" Johnson's crew hyping up regional talent like Raymond Felton and Sean May in order to boost ticket sales in Charlotte, you're going to see ACC players drafted much earlier than projected. (Note: "Irkel", we know your game, dude... . We're still upset at the arena that's been jammed down our throat.)

So, Carolina fans can say prayers and chant deep into the night, but I don't think it's going to help when looking at the case of whether or not Tyler Hansbrough is going to remain in Chapel Hill next season. There are too many forces at play.

In today's sportsworld, superstars who stay the extra year, the Tim Duncans, the Grant Hills, the Matt Leinarts, hell even the Jameer Nelsons have become rare, rare?very rare.

Even with Leinart and all the innocence of the love of college, don't forget his situation was a little more complex than his adoration for USC and his will to take ball-room dancing. There were questions about his arm strength, elbow and knee injuries, and he also had the slight seductiveness of becoming the darling of LA added to the mix...which was not a bad perk. There was also the factor of his lack of interest in being beat up in Candlestick/3Com/Monster Cable Park for the next four years.

The joke of this whole thing is how the NBA choked it with the 19 year-old age limit. It should have been twenty year age limit or two years in school. Now, you're witnessing why that age limit is such a farce. Wait until next year's exodus. The stronger age limit would have helped the NBA by securing a more mature product to put on display. It would have also warded off phony talents like J.R. Smith. What they're using now is pouring out of buckets to water the lawn.

If you're into college teams, it has come down to this: you have to look at teams for what they are NOW. If Tyler Hansbrough leaves, it neither makes him a bad guy nor signifies a poor choice. We are witnessing the start of a fleeting star era, and the "one and done" movement will continue to impact the elite level schools. The game shifted in the mid-'90s. It just didn't impact UNC and the other elite powers until the past two seasons.

For what it's worth, I guarantee you that if you shared a backyard BBQ with Roy Williams, he would confide to you over a few Coca-Colas that he was jolted as if by a cattle prod when Marvin Williams left Chapel Hill. The beauty of all this is that Roy didn't whine. He prepared and conquered with his recruiting. Another amazing story about this season's Tar Heels is that Williams is developing an experienced foundation for the future.

And yes...recruits Alex Stepheson, Deon Thompson, and Brandan Wright, are going to form a tour de force front-line rotation next year regardless of whether or not Hansbrough comes back for next season or for even his junior year. The ancillary effect of Williams' stockpiling through phenomenal recruiting is that a ten-man rotation will unintentionally hide talented players similar to the way Lute Olsen did at Arizona when he stockpiled and veiled players such as Will Bynum, Channing Frye, and Richard Jefferson over the past decade.

Yet, what North Carolina fans must realize is that it's a different game now in terms of loyalty and development; college basketball players will no longer stick around for the maturation of their own game. It's all about spending years to get to upper half of the draft, and let it ride from there.

We can all hope that Tyler Hansbrough will turn out to be a throwback similar to the cases of Tim Duncan and Grant Hill a short decade ago. In today's world, it takes a very special person to have the confidence in his future to believe he'll develop in the college game to make a name for himself. If Tyler Hansbrough stays at Carolina for next season, it would equate to a refreshing story for college basketball. However, from here, it reads like such thoughts in the basketball world are just a little too far back...Like sending notes via fax.

Marvin Williams wasn't even close to being ready for the NBA in terms of ability...What makes one think Tyler Hansbrough is different, or that he should act differently with his choice?

So, the advice is to stay in the NOW and ponder whether or not this year's Carolina team could potentially be in a position for a run at the Sweet 16 or Final 8...It is quite possible. And what a treat to watch a player of Tyler Hansbrough's size and potential busting his @$$ on the floor every game this Tar Heel season.

We can hope that he'll be running the court for the Heels another year or two. Still, it's highly likely that type of effort and potential will be more apt to have a seat on the bench in Boston or Minnesota next year... "That boy is hot."

Let's ride this horse all the way to the Sweet 16!

Poplar Bluff,

BD

Bret Dougherty is an alum and completed his Master's degree at UNC-Chapel Hill. He is a host of WXYC FM 89.3 Chapel Hill 'SportsRap' and a WXYC music show called 'Fifteen Feet and In' that can be streamed at www.wxyc.org. Visit his website at www.bretdougherty.com and his blog, "The IronDog Chronicles, which can be reached at www.irondogchronicles.com. He may be reached at bret.dougherty@gmail.com.